[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back as Sentiment Over Indonesia's Turmoil Subsides on September 2

SMM Nickel Market Update on September 2:

Macro News:

(1) On the morning of September 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. President Putin was in China to attend the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit and commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression. The two sides signed over 20 bilateral cooperation documents covering energy, aerospace, artificial intelligence, agriculture, inspection and quarantine, health, scientific research, education, and media.

(2) SCO member state leaders signed and issued the Tianjin Declaration of the SCO Council of Heads of State. They also approved the SCO Development Strategy for the Next Decade (2026-2035).

Spot Market:

Today, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged between 122,800-125,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 124,050 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,000-2,200 yuan/mt, averaging 2,100 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous session. The spot premiums/discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -200-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2510) jumped initially and then pulled back during the night session, closing at 123,400 yuan/mt, up 630 yuan/mt (0.51%). During the daytime session, prices continued to pull back, settling at 122,530 yuan/mt by the afternoon close, down 0.2%.

As recent unrest in Jakarta, Indonesia, has been mainly concentrated in urban centers and has not directly affected production activities at major nickel industrial parks in Sulawesi, the impact on nickel prices has waned, leading to a price jump followed by a pullback. The US non-farm payrolls data for August is expected to be released this week. If the data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut. Nickel prices are projected to hold up well in the near term, with a price range of 121,000-125,000 yuan/mt.